Maurizio Molinari

As they struggle to consolidate territory, IS has called on its foreign fighters to focus on the West, thus opening a new front in their jihad.

Russia has begun to reinforce the Assad regime in Syria with weapons and troops. Putin’s gambit is both a last ditch effort to keep his ally from losing and an attempt to make Moscow a major player in the Middle East again.

After years of seemingly uncontested rule in Turkey, Prime Minister Erdogan has to confront obstacles to his neo-Ottoman vision. His fate will have a huge impact on the Middle East power struggle. 

In order to get a sense of how events might play out in the Middle East, the Iranian agreement can be seen from the perspectives of four different power blocs vying for increased influence in the Muslim world.

Outraged by the horrors of IS perpetrated on their subjects, the President of Egypt and the King of Jordan have forged a pact to destroy the jihadists on the other side of their border.

One of the aims of the jihadist attacks in Paris is to gain more recruits in Europe, while at the same time instigating strife within the Muslim communities.

Whether meant for domestic consumption or in earnest, recent tweets from the Iranian Supreme Leader have been provocative. The subtext implied that Hezbollah and Hamas would be keys to Israel’s destruction.

With Sunni Arab nations now helping the US to bomb Islamic State forces in Syria, the Middle East is bracing for a protracted war. Given their widespread support among jihadis, the IS will not be easy to destroy.

Egypt’s new president is determined to crush his country’s Islamists. In doing so, he is forging a moderate Sunni alliance in the region, one that tacitly includes Israel.

With negotiations based on a Two State Solution hitting a wall, many on both sides of the Israeli-Palestinian question are beginning to wonder if some alternative solution might not be more appropriate.

There is no love lost between Iran and Israel. Yet as negotiations proceed and moderates gain momentum, some movement toward a reciprocal acceptance seems to be taking place.

As his mandate heads for the home stretch, Obama’s attempt to solidify a legacy in foreign affairs will be hindered by obstacles posed both in China and Europe.

In the latest debt ceiling drama, Republican zealots have pushed too hard in the eyes of both their moderate colleagues and their constituency. This could spell disaster for the GOP in the 2014 midterm elections.

With every available opportunity, the Russian president does not hesitate to make America aware that its old nemesis is still there to make its quest for hegemony more difficult.

Whatever happens in Syria, Middle East alliances will be affected. Recent American overtures to Russia imply a willingness to allow Moscow greater influence in the region if it can convince Assad to stand down.

The Shia-led Iraqi government’s sympathies in the Syrian conflict coincide with Iran’s, because if Sunni militants take over Syria, Iraq could be destabilized. The US, however, is wondering how to play the situation to its advantage.

With his choices for Secretaries of State, Defense and the Treasury, Obama has shored up the bipartisan credentials of his team. Yet his game plan involves a direct challenge to his most hardened adversaries.

Ostensibly a matter of adultery, the Petreaus affair has deeper implications on national security. Did federal agencies cover for the president? Did the CIA chief become blackmailable? These questions probably won’t go away soon.

China and the US need each other. Any way you look at it, they each stand to benefit from the other’s prosperity. But electoral politics requires that both candidates confront the only possible threat to US hegemony.

Amid the turmoil in the Middle East, Washington sees in Turkey a model for the nascent democracies to follow and in Erdogan an interlocutor with a shared geostrategic vision.­­

Mitt Romney is an anomaly when it comes to Republicans. In fact, to some conservatives he looks a little too progressive to be palatable. But Romney is betting that voters in the center will prefer him to Obama.

As the Pentagon cuts spending, NATO is looking to revamp its structure. Europe will need to defend its own territory more as the US concentrates on areas of growing vital interest.

The Republicans are down to two contrasting candidates. Romney has the organization and money, Gingrich the determination and grit. What each lacks, the other makes up for in abundance.

If there is one weak link in Obama’s foreign policy, it is Iran. The alleged plot to assassinate a Saudi diplomat can free the president up to garner international support against Tehran.

The Republican candidates are off and running. Regenerated by the Tea Partiers’ ideological chest-thumping on the debt, the more pragmatic candidates must now vaunt their values – fiscal and otherwise.

Recent changes at the top of the Pentagon and the CIA served as prelude to the debate in Washington about the withdrawal of troops. The shuffle of chief advisors points to more CIA-Pentagon synergy.

Obama has a lot on his plate, with wars, upheavals in the Arab world, high unemployment, and astronomical debt. But first things first: the 2012 campaign.

In his upcoming trip to Brazil, Chile and El Salvador, Obama will emphasize how US interests converge with Latin America’s. By forming a united front with emerging economies, the US President hopes to send a message not only
to China, but to Chavez as well.