Although Europe may look like it’s cracking up, and there is no easy solution for bringing it closer together, the military is one area where cooperation could serve as a realistic binding agent.
Balancing threats with incentives is an age-old political skill. As societies become more complex and technologically advanced, there is a greater probability that our “carrots” and “sticks” will not work as intended with less developed adversaries.
When US-led forces invaded Iraq, they ousted Saddam Hussein’s dictatorial regime and tried to build democratic institutions. A decade later Americans have released a report assessing their successes and failures.
Strategic changes in the world are occurring faster than any institution can possibly deal with them. The OSCE is a model that could and should be tuned to work better than it does.
The spike in Taliban attacks follows an almost predictable seasonal pattern. But a closer look shows that Afghan forces are capable of negating the insurgents’ ability to hold ground, and this is a sign in the right direction.
Things change quickly. If we don’t want to be caught out we must use our imagination to forecast possible outcomes and take the right steps.